ksa_en — AF NWRMP

Karadarya – Syrdarya – Amudarya
river basin

Physiogeographical location

The territory of the basin within the Kyrgyz Republic (KR) is in the north, northeast borders on the river basin (r.b) Naryn-Syrdarya, the northern border is the state border with the Republics of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the southern border is the state border with the Republic of Tajikistan and the People's Republic of China. The basin covers territories of three administrative oblasts - Batken, Osh oblast and partially Jalal-Abad.

The basin includes

The basin includes the left-bank part of Syrdarya hydrological basin, including the r.b. Karadarya and Amudarya hydrological basin. From the confluence of the rr. Naryn and Karadarya the river Syrdarya is formed in the eastern part of Ferghana Valley. Further downstream in the southwestern direction, the river receives a large number of tributaries on the left, among which are the rr. Isfairam, Shakhimardan, Sokh, Isfara, Khodzhabakirgan and Aksu.

Length

The basin area - 53178.1 km₂ or 27% of the entire KR territory, being the second largest after the r.b. Naryn-Syrdarya.

Karadarya

The r. Karadarya is the main left tributary of the r. Syrdarya, the runoff of which is formed on the southwestern slope of Fergana and the northern slope of the Alai ridges. The river belongs to the territory of river basin Kyzylsu (Western) with tributaries, which inflows into the r .Amudarya.

Agriculture and animal husbandry

In the basin, surveys performed for 13 rivers with the longest observation period, including the last thirty years. The surveys have revealed that seven rivers (54%) have a positive runoff gradient, and six (46%) have a negative gradient. At the same time, the absolute values of gradients, identified for two different periods, demonstrate that the gradients calculated for 1990-2018 by 1-17 times higher than the similar value identified for a longer period, and for individual rivers: Isfairamsay, Yassy, Donguztau and Zerger, this ratio reaches 17, 8, 6, 7 times, respectively.

Average cropping pattern in the basin

CURRENT SITUATION

thousand people

The population of the basin for 2021 was only 3119.7 thousand people, including in Batken oblast — 548,2 thousand people, in Osh oblast, including c. Osh — 1713.9 thousand people, in three rayons (Bazar- Korgon, Nooken, Suzak) of Djalal-Abad oblast — 857.6 thousand people. For the period 2017-2021 the total population of the basin increased by 256.4 thousand people or by 8.9 %. Of these, 76% of the population lived in villages, and 24% in urban areas.

Industry

The industrial entities concentrated in the basin: minerals extraction, processing industry, mainly food products. In monetary terms, the output of industrial products in recent years is 11-14% of the nationwide.

Use of water resources

The annual water abstraction from surface sources, including groundwater, in the basin’s territory is about 2.6 billion m₃, of which about 2.0 billion m₃ is used for various needs.

Sampling of water use on the territory of the Karadarya-Sydarya-Amudarya basin (million m/cubic meter)

Of the total volume of water abstracted, about 23% are losses, mainly from irrigation systems.

Water abstraction and water use for 2017-2021

WATER LOSSES FOR 2017-2021

Of the annual water use volumes, about 96 %4 is used for irrigation, 3% for domestic and drinking needs and 1% for industrial needs.

WATER CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE FOR 2021

Projected climate change

climate change

It is highly likely that the basin's river runoff will slightly increase until the 2020s due to the glacier storeactivity. But by 2100 it will decrease significantly - up to 30-43% in the r.b. Karadarya, and in the southern part of Ferghana Valley - up to 27-48%, in the r.b. Amudarya - 28-56% of the 2000runoff. Moreover, based on surveys performed in the basin on current changes in the selected 13 rivers’ runoff, a forecast of changes in the rivers’ runoff for the upcoming 10-year period was developed. In the next ten years, the runoff of eight out of 13 rivers will decrease within 2-25% of the average annual water volume, and the runoff of 5 rivers will be increased by 2028.

Emergancy situations

Among all adverse climatic phenomena, the droughts and water resources scarcity will have the greatest impact on the Kyrgyz Republic's economy, and especially on agriculture. The territories of semi-deserts will increase in the Kyrgyz Republic by 1.8-2.1 times, and in KSAB, as a whole, by 1.3-1.8 times compared to 2000. For emergency situations such as: mudflows, floods, mountain lakes break-throughs, the increase is also expected, characterized by a shift in maximum probability of highly-likely emergency situations, towards increased frequency. The consequences of climate change are unfavorable for the economy of the basin and, first of all, for agriculture, public health and natural systems, which determines the need for adaptation actions.

Existing issues and remedies

With a further trend in the population growth, the pressure on water resources will increase. Providing water consumers with water metering devices for the rational use of drinking water, perform additional research, clarification and approval of groundwater reserves within a deposit location(s). Establishing adequate tariffs for the supply of drinking water.

The main problems of agricultural sector are the absence of a processing cycle and lack of mineral fertilizers, lack of selection works. Development of the processing industry and transportation infrastructure.

Condition of an irrigation systems: according to the irrigation fund data of Batken, Osh the BWMU and three rayons in Djalal-Abad oblast, the total length of irrigation canals in the basin - 1.7 thousand km, of which about 35% of the network require overhaul and current repairs. Increasing water losses in canals and improper condition of drainage systems lead to an increase in the level of groundwater and soil salinization, flooding of residential areas.

Irrigated lands in unsatisfactory condition account for 3% of the total area of irrigated lands.

The State funding for rehabilitation and (re)construction of irrigation systems is increased annually. By 2026 in KSAB, it is planned to complete seventeen facilities, which will allow the introduction of newly irrigated lands on area of 72,435 ha, increase irrigation water delivery volumes on area of 77,540 ha, and transfer of 3,111 ha of currently pump irrigated lands to gravity irrigation.

Almost all rivers in the basin are mudflow hazardous, the runoff of which, usually, leads to coastal erosion, threat of flooding in residential areas, destruction of hydraulic structures, households and other buildings, etc. the Osh and Djalal-Abad oblasts are distinctive with mudslide processes, which may affect 600 residential areas. The groundwater flooding is also noted, and especially in the valley of r. Kugart in 42 residential areas, which include the regional center village Suzak. The areas of high groundwater level rise are noted along the r. Karadarya, mainly in rice-growing areas. The development of an emergency warning system for the population, in case of high floods and high-mountain lakes breakthroughs, adequate maintenance of collector-drainage networks, and introduction of water-saving technologies (drip irrigation) in rice cultivation.

Ecology: the irrigated agriculture, animal husbandry and household services are the main polluters of surface and ground waters. The quality of surface and ground waters is negatively affected by wastewater from the cities of the basin and municipal solid waste dumps. Considering that the concept of development of regional plans to commission into operation a number of production facilities, mainly processing industry entities, and development of the mining industry, in the future, the quality of water may deteriorate significantly. By 2025, the (re)construction and rehabilitation of drinking water supply and sewage systems in 9 cities and villages of the basin.

River basin development tendency

The development of KSAB will be in line with objectives of the National Development Strategy of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2018–2040, and implementation of the National Water Strategy of the Kyrgyz Republic until 2040. The Strategic Vision for the development of the considered basin can be formulated as follows:
The economic and social activities of the population in KSAB are developing in harmony with the natural environment.

The development of KSAB will be carried out in the following directions:

Industry and transportation infrastructure

The basin, due to its geographical location, has a huge potential for entering the markets of neighboring countries. This requires investments in the modernization and rehabilitation of transportation infrastructure, and create a southern logistics center in c. Osh. The commissioning of processing entities to reduce unemployment and, as a result, reduce the scale of migration of the most active and working-age population.

Agriculture and Irrigation systems improvement

In agriculture, it is important to provide access to crediting resources, support with the supply of mineral fertilizers and chemicals. Introduce measures to increase productivity and full-scale processing of agricultural products for export. The main brand of Batken oblast is dried apricots, which is mainly oriented to the markets of neighboring countries, in particular, Tajikistan. Therefore, the main directions for oblast development are the production of environmentally friendly dried fruits for the countries of near and far abroad. Resolving water conflicts, in particular in bordering areas through the (re)construction and modernization of irrigation systems.

Development of mining industry

There are promising prospects for the mining industry, where it is necessary to create a favorable investment climate, and implement interventions to eliminate existing problems in the field of legislation, tax administration and government regulation. For the Kyrgyz Republic it is relevant to ensure the security of property and investments.

Karadarya – Syrdarya – Amudarya river basin